This presentation provided an update on costs for new CFPP and CCGT gas plants along with details on coal drying technology. Specific topics covered in the presentation are:

The impacts of Increases in EPC prices, coal costs and a $30/t Carbon Tax on power prices for electricity generated by new CFPP and gas fired CCGT plants in Asia;

Indonesia’s coming shift to LRC (high moisture, low CV Coal)

Coal drying systems under consideration

Benefits to Indonesian coal producers of marketing dried LRC

Benefits to power producers of consuming dried LRC

Qualitative discussion of impacts on carbon footprints of coal producers

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I presented this paper before a group of Harvard professors and international participants in the Harvard Asia Vision Conference. I discussed the hard realities of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology and the many reasons – both technical and commercial- why it was not the solution to our global climate change crisis. The details are presented within and 15 years after its delivery it remains a paper worth reading.

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This presentation provides a in depth review of the competitive strengths and weaknesses of the Indonesian and Australian thermal coal industries as of May 2010. It reviews typical coal qualities offered by both industries and the uncertainties due to Indonesia’s ongoing transition to low rank coals and in both cases the increasing threat of overbearing government regulation in both Indonesia and Australia. Estimates of the shorter transport distances for Indonesian coal producers relative to Australian producers are provided as well as other advantages that Indonesian coal producers hold over their Australian competitors.

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This presentation provided a review of past coal price trends in Asia and an outlook on coal prices between 2015 and 2020. Specific topics covered:

Price Trends for Australian Bituminous Coals (1980-2014) and Indonesian Medium Rank Coal (2009-2014)

Reasons for Past Price Movements and Impacts on Supply and Demand and outlook to 2020 with a focus on China changing from major steam coal exporter to importer (2002-2011) and the thermal coal price decline between 2012 and 2014

Thoughts on Data Accuracy and our ability to forecast Asian coal exports requirements more than 1 year ahead.

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This presentation provides a survey of LNG data sources and methods for determining FOB coal prices and then compares the quality and accuracy of coal sources against LNG price data sources. It also provides calculations and comparisons of Asian LNG prices from different sources such as Platts JKM, JCC and Henry Hub with a discussion of the DES price advantage that buyers can achieve by ordering LNG from LNG suppliers located on the US Gulf coast. It concludes with a discussion of price volatility risks that create price uncertainty for all price series.

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I presented the results of a DCF study I conducted for hypothetical coal and gas-fired power plants assumed to be built at a site in Rayong, Thailand. Detailed performance data and EPC and O&M cost data were obtained from an international engineering firm and then analyzed using a DCF financial model owned and operated by Roleva Energy. The methodology and data are discussed at length, followed by the presentation of the DCF analysis, which showed for a number of gas-coal price scenarios, including the imposition of a carbon tax, which of the two power plant types offered the lowest life cycle cost.

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In this paper, I compared the results of a detailed discounted cash flow analysis conducted for a hypothetical grid connected solar PV plant in Bangkok Thailand against the announced the super low bid prices announced for the Sweihan Solar Park in Abu Dhabi. After correcting for solar insolation differences, the Sweihan bid prices were still significantly below the estimated price of electricity from the hypothetical Bangkok plant. Scale was also not the primary determinant of any price difference. After future research, Roleva Energy concluded that the main difference was due to special concessions offered by ADWEA, the Abu Dhabi government agency that managed the tenders. These concessions included a fully developed site with a grid connection that was awarded to the winning bidder at no charge in addition to the government of Abu Dhabi making available to the winning bidder concessionary Islamic financing and ADWEA taking a 60% equity share in the winning bidder’s project with deferred dividends.

The paper then turns to consideration of plant vs industry scale and how growth in both plant size and industry scale have led to lower life cycle solar plant costs over time. The paper also reviews various technological advances on solar PV costs and the role played by cut-throat competition among Chinese PV suppliers in bringing down EPC prices for new solar PV plants with the cautionary note that these below cost price declines cannot go on forever. The presentation includes three annexes. Annex 1 provide the detailed cost and performance assumptions used for the Bangkok plant DFC analysis while Annexes 2 and 3 provide ratio analysis data for 4 of China’s largest solar PV panel suppliers and information on solar PV price trends between 1996 and 2016.

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I delivered this paper at ADBi’s 2023 “Virtual Workshop on Energy Transition from Coal to a Low-Carbon Future”. I discussed policy issues related to GHG emissions in general and then those special issues related to the retirement by 2050 of Indonesia’s entire fleet of operating coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). Starting with a review of global and APAC regional CO2 emissions from coal and all fossil fuels, I then turned my attention to Indonesia and what can be achieved over time if each Indonesian CFPP was retired no later than 5 years after the expiration date of its PPA.

A comprehensive power plant data base for Indonesia was used to estimate annual changes in (i) Indonesia’s coal requirement for domestic CFPPs, (ii) their CO2 emissions, and (iii) the annual reduction in base load capacity needing replacement with either low or no CO2 emission alternatives.

My analysis indicated that the Indonesian Government could rely on the expiry dates of CFPP PPAs to achieve the retirement of all of its CFPPs by either 2050 or 2053 depending on whether a grace period is allowed before retirement. The clean base load alternatives to CFPPs (advanced geothermal and small modular nuclear reactors) are still not fully commercialized and this commercial uncertainty will need to be monitored between 2025 and 2050.

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