This presentation compares the results of a detailed DCF analysis for a hypothetical solar PV plant in Bangkok Thailand against the announced life cycle bid prices for a 300 MW solar PV plant that was planned for the Sweihan Solar Park in Abu Dhabi. After correcting for solar insolation differences, the Sweihan bid prices were still significantly below the estimated life cycle price of electricity from the hypothetical Bangkok plant due to special concessions offered by ADWEA, the Abu Dhabi government agency in charge of the solar PV tender. These concessions to the winning bidder included (i) a fully developed site with a grid connection at no charge to the winning bidder, (ii) the provision of concessionary Islamic financing, and (iii) ADWEA agreeing to take a 60% equity share in the winning bidder’s project with deferred dividends. Other topics discussed (i) plant vs industry scale and their impacts on life cycle solar plant costs over time, (ii) various solar PV technological advances still under development or just entering the market in 2017, and (iii) cut-throat competition among Chinese PV suppliers and its impact on panel and inverter prices for new solar PV plants.

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This presentation starts with a review of global and APAC regional CO2 emissions from the combustion of coal and other fossil fuels before discussing various policy issues related to the retirement by 2050 of Indonesia’s entire fleet of operating coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). A comprehensive power plant data base for Indonesia was used to estimate annual changes in (i) Indonesia’s coal requirements for domestic CFPPs, (ii) its CO2 emissions, and (iii) the resulting reduction in base load capacity that will need replacement with either low or no CO2 emission alternatives over the next 25 years.

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