This presentation provides a survey of the data sources and methods for determining FOB coal prices and then compares the quality and accuracy of the resulting coal price series against those reported by various sources of LNG price data, e.g., Platts Japanese-Korea Marker (JKM) Price for LNG, METI’s Japan Custom Cleared (JCC) LNG Price, and the Henry Hub Derived LNG Price. It concludes with a discussion of the DES price advantage that Asian LNG buyers would have achieved if they had purchased LNG from US Gulf Coast LNG suppliers with prices based on the Henry Hub gas price. It concludes with a discussion of price volatility risks that create price uncertainty for all LNG price series over time.

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This presentation reports on the results of a DCF study conducted for hypothetical coal and gas-fired power plants assumed to be built at a site in Rayong, Thailand. Detailed performance data and EPC and O&M cost data were obtained from an international engineering firm and then analyzed using a DCF financial model. The methodology and data are discussed at length, followed by the presentation of the DCF analysis, which showed for a number of gas-coal price scenarios, including the imposition of a carbon tax, which of the two power plant types offered the lowest life cycle cost.

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